< 목 차 >
요 약 ···································································································· i
제1장 추진경과 ················································································· 1
1. 추진근거 ··································································································· 3
2. 추진여건과 기본방향 ············································································· 3
3. 추진체계 ··································································································· 5
4. 추진경과 ··································································································· 7
제2장 재정추계의 여건변화 ··························································· 9
1. 인구 및 경제여건의 변화 ····································································· 11
2. 제도여건의 변화 ····················································································· 14
제3장 추계방법 ··············································································· 17
1. 추계모형 ································································································· 19
2. 추계방법 ··································································································· 21
제4장 주요가정 ··············································································· 31
1. 인구변수 가정 ························································································· 33
2. 경제변수 가정 ······················································································· 38
3. 납부예외율, 징수율 및 소득수준 가정 ·············································· 45
제5장 추계결과 ··············································································· 49
1. 추계기간 ··································································································· 51
2. 인구구조 ··································································································· 51
3. 재정추계결과 ··························································································· 60
제6장 민감도분석(Sensitivity Test) ·············································· 67
1. 민감도분석을 위한 시나리오 ······························································· 69
2. 민감도분석 결과 ····················································································· 73
제7장 재정평가 ··············································································· 77
1. 재정평가 방법 및 기준 ········································································· 79
2. 재정목표 달성을 위한 보험료율 ························································· 81
3. 국민연금의 잠재부채 ············································································· 85