목차

1. 연구의목적및배경······························································································ 1

2. 선진국연금재정추계기관의거시경제변수전망방법검토······················ 2

3. 국내외경제여건변화추이및전망································································ 16

3.1. 경제환경변화추이와전망······································································· 16

3.2. 구조변화의추이와전망············································································· 30

3.3. 국내외경제여건변화추이및전망······················································· 38

4. 전망방법론개요및전망의시나리오···························································· 42

4.1 실질GDP 성장률전망방법······································································· 42

4.2 물가, 금리, 임금등주요명목변수추정방법········································ 45

4.3 전망의시나리오···························································································· 45

5. 노동공급전망········································································································ 47

5.1 인구전망·········································································································· 47

5.2 취업률전망·································································································· 50

5.3 전망관련주요이슈및전제······································································ 53

5.4. 노동공급전망결과및해석····································································· 61

6. 인적자본지수전망···························································································· 70

6.1 방법론및데이터·························································································· 70

6.2 전망관련주요이슈및전제······································································ 71

6.3 전망결과논의······························································································ 73

7. 저축률및투자율·································································································· 76

7.1 방법론및데이터·························································································· 76

7.2 전망관련전제································································································ 80

7.3 전망결과및해석························································································ 81

8. 총요소생산성증가율전망·················································································· 82

8.1 전망관련주요이슈논의············································································ 82

8.2 총요소생산성증가율의가정······································································ 95

9. 실질GDP증가율전망·························································································· 98

9.1 Baseline 전망(시나리오I) ··········································································· 98

9.2 기타시나리오별전망·············································································· 101

10. 금리및임금전망···························································································· 107

10.1 개관·············································································································· 107

10.2 실질금리전망···························································································· 107

10.3 실질임금상승률전망·············································································· 111

10.4 물가상승률·································································································· 115

[부록1] 총요소생산성결정요인의국제비교··················································· 119

[부록2] 연도별실질GDP 및일인당실질GDP 증가율································ 122